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2010 Melbourne Cup Form Guide
Our guide to Melbourne Cup betting will help you find the winner of the Cup with history, statistics & betting strategies.
There are many variables to consider when trying to find the winner of any horse race, but after hours studying the Melbourne Cup form you may find every runner will appear to have some chance of at least running a place.
So, how do you narrow down a field of 24 runners to your top two or three - or four - ok, how about your top eight?
There is less than 72 hours between the announcement of the final field and getting your bets on, so you've got some serious form study to do:
Age, Sex & Weight?
Four and five year old male horses have won more Melbourne Cups than any other age and gender. This is mainly because the Cup is a handicap and horses in this age bracket are generally more kindly weighted than older horses who have more wins on record and therefore carry more weight.
Of the 149 winners of the Melbourne Cup to date there have been 40 5yo males, 38 4yo Males and 24 6yo males, with 13 mares aged between 7 and 4, 3 fillies and 10 male horses aged over 7. The last top weight to win also carried the highest weight carried to victory by a mare - 58kgs. That horse was Makybe Diva in 2005, and yes, she was a freak.
3 year old horses have not won in the modern era of the Cup, the last 3yo to win was Skipton in 1941. Statistically, a male horse aged 4, 5 or 6 is the usually way to go.
Locals v Internationals?
With the VRC offering healthy incentives to entice international runners to participate in the Cup (for reasons best known to themselves) there is sure to be a portion of the field whose form in other countries is hard to line up against our local hopes. The last time runners from Japan were permitted to participate (prior to the equine flu outbreak) they ran the quinella. Not that surprising, since the world track record for the Cup distance of 3200m (3:13.4) is held by Japanese horse Deep Impact. However red tape looks likely to again prevent them from participating in 2010.
Some Irish & British horses have performed well in the event and there have been many to run a place, although an equal amount of their runners have also failed to carry their usually high weights. By 2009 a total of 66 horses European horses had competed in the Melbourne Cup with only 2 winners (Dermot Weld's Vintage Crop & Media Puzzle). Godolphin always brings a classy team but has had little luck in recent years with their horses rarely missed by the hanidcapper. With several placegetters already, they'll get it right one day and this could be their year. By the way, Australians consider New Zealand to be a part of Australia when it comes to racehorses, so they don't count as Internationals as far as we're concerned.
As for the best of the local runners, it is an unusual Melbourne Cup that doesn't include at least one horse trained by the master J B Cummings. Now in his eighties, Bart is the Cup King and is looking for his bakers dozen of Melbourne Cups this year. Horses trained by Robert Hickmott should also be carefully considered, his boss Lloyd Williams would love to win the 150th version of this famous race and entered no less than 23 horses for the race in August 2010. But one of the best things about this race is that any trainer with a horse that qualifies has a shot at equine immortality, from the most cashed up horse training corporation to a battler from the bush.
Lead Up Form?
There are a few races which have been significant pointers to success in the Cup. The Mackinnon Stakes & Lexus Stakes, which are run at Flemington on the Saturday before the Cup are, for many, the last chance to secure a place in the Melbourne Cup final field. While not as popular today as it has been in the past to run Melbourne Cup horses on this day, any horse that does race on the Saturday before the Cup, regardless of where it finishes, must be considered. Half the last 40 Cup winners had their lead up start in the Mackinnon and last years winner Shocking won the previous Saturday's Lexus Stakes.
The other most significant lead up race for the Melbourne Cup is the Caulfield Cup. A prestigious race in it's own right, in the last 40 years around 60% of Cup winners also started at Caulfield. It's considered a lead up race (with a handy $2.5 mill in the prize pool) for Melbourne Cup runners so they're only expected to run well, although 11 horses have run the double in the same year with the last being Ethereal in 2001.
Lead Up Form?
There are a few races which have been significant pointers to success in the Cup. The Mackinnon Stakes & Lexus Stakes, which are run at Flemington on the Saturday before the Cup are, for many, the last chance to secure a place in the Melbourne Cup final field. While not as popular today as it has been in the past to run Melbourne Cup horses on this day, any horse that does race on the Saturday before the Cup, regardless of where it finishes, must be considered. Half the last 40 Cup winners had their lead up start in the Mackinnon and last years winner Shocking won the previous Saturday's Lexus Stakes.
The other most significant lead up race for the Melbourne Cup is the Caulfield Cup. A prestigious race in it's own right, in the last 40 years around 60% of Cup winners also started at Caulfield. It's considered a lead up race (with a handy $2.5 mill in the prize pool) for Melbourne Cup runners so they're only expected to run well, although 11 horses have run the double in the same year with the last being Ethereal in 2001.
Other races to consider when looking at the Melbourne Cup form guide are the Herbert Power Stakes, Geelong Cup, Moonee Valley Cup, Lexus Stakes, Sydney Cup, Adelaide Cup & Brisbane Cup.
Need more Melbourne Cup Facts & Figures? Go HERE for statistics and details on the winners from the last 30 years of Melbourne Cups.
